With more warming, lake ice would take longer to support weight
In simulations with 4°C more warming, waiting for usable thickness took nearly 20 extra days with white ice and about three with black ice, relative to historical black ice.
The key idea
A frozen lake and a lake that can be used are two different dates, and warming can widen the gap.
The study, in plain language
The team simulated how long ice took to grow and thin under several warming levels compared with the 1851–1880 climate. Because the model does not provide the amount of white and black ice in each lake, they tested three hypothetical scenarios: all black ice, a mix of black and white, and all white ice.
White ice contains more air bubbles and supports less load than black ice, so the model required it to be thicker to support the same weight. With 4°C of additional warming, the wait after ice formation lengthened by nearly 20 days in the white-ice scenario and about three days in the black-ice scenario, relative to a historical black-ice reference. The greatest extensions occurred in coastal areas and at lower northern latitudes.
What they found
- In the simulations, more warming lengthened the time between ice formation and reaching usable thickness.
- White ice, with more air, needed to be thicker than black ice to support the same weight.
- The wait lengthened more in coastal areas and at lower northern latitudes.
How they studied it
Researchers used a climate-and-lake model to compare when ice reached different thicknesses and validated it against records from 71 lakes. Ice quality was represented with hypothetical scenarios. Each model grid cell represents a lake of average depth and surface area.
What the study cannot show
- The model represents average lakes by grid cell and tends to underestimate thickness. It does not determine conditions or safety for use on a specific lake.
Something to think about
If there is a frozen lake near you, how many days could that ice actually be used? The presence of ice does not tell the whole story.
The original study
Widespread loss of safe lake ice access in response to a warming climate
Source under CC BY 4.0. English adaptation and explanation by PaperFlow, with AI assistance. The text has been reorganized for a general audience; it is not the complete paper and does not imply endorsement by its authors.
One study alone does not represent a field's consensus. Educational content does not replace professional advice. Report a possible error.
