Before graduating, men already expected to earn more than women
Among 865 students in Switzerland, men expected salaries nearly 10% higher at graduation. These were expectations, not wages received.
The key idea
What someone expects to earn and what they eventually earn are different data, and a gap can already appear in the first.
The study, in plain language
The authors combined answers about expected salaries, career plans, work preferences, and family plans. Men expected to earn more than women both at graduation and three years later: nearly 10% more at the first point and nearly 12% more at the second. This was a difference in what they imagined they would earn. Actual salaries had not yet been observed.
For the subgroup of students in Bern, the researchers compared expectations with salaries of graduates from a separate, small, voluntary survey. Both men and women expected starting salaries above that reference: about 13% higher for men and about 11% for women. These were different people, so this was a comparison between groups. When models included career and personal preferences, a smaller share of the gap remained unexplained, although its size depended on the assumptions.
What they found
- The gap between men and women was already present in what they expected to earn before graduating.
- In the Bern subgroup, both groups expected starting salaries above the external reference.
- Adding work and family preferences reduced part of the unexplained gap, although the result depended on the model.
How they studied it
A survey of students at two Swiss institutions asked about expected salaries, career plans, and work and family preferences. Expectations from a subgroup in Bern were compared with salaries from an external graduate survey, and statistical models estimated how much of the gap those preferences explained. Researchers asked questions without intervening: there was no random assignment or change.
What the study cannot show
- The same people were not followed until they received their salaries, and the external comparison used self-selected graduates. Models may omit relevant factors and do not prove causes of the actual pay gap.
Something to think about
When you hear a figure for an “expected salary,” ask who estimated it, for what point in time, and against which reference. An expectation tells you something, but it is not a salary.
The original study
Gender differences in wage expectations
Source under CC BY 4.0. English adaptation and explanation by PaperFlow, with AI assistance. The text has been reorganized for a general audience; it is not the complete paper and does not imply endorsement by its authors.
One study alone does not represent a field's consensus. Educational content does not replace professional advice. Report a possible error.
